Suicide Squad

UPDATE, Friday, 11:14PM: Refresh for chart Early evening estimates have Warner Bros.’ Suicide Squad at $140M-plus for the weekend after a Friday that’s between $63.5M-$65M. But, when it comes to the audience and critics’ response to the film, it’s deja-vu all over again. Like Batman v. Superman, which earned a 27% Rotten Tomatoes score and B CinemaScore, Suicide Squad is getting panned by critics (26%) and has registered an above average response from CinemaScore crowds who gave it a B+ tonight. We’ll assess the long-term ramification of this in a bit, but Warner Bros. marketing department needs to be applauded here for delivering the third-best domestic opening of 2016 to date, the second best of the summer (after Captain America: Civil War‘s $179.1M) and the best opening of Will Smith’s career. Suicide Squad continues to validate Warner Bros.’ ability to capitalize on its brands.

At the beginning of the summer, rival distribution heads didn’t know whether to make heads or tails about Suicide Squad‘s prospects. After watching Warner Bros. get beat up by crowds and critics despite its $872.7M global business, distributors didn’t know if the DC villain film would work. Warner Bros. executives weren’t cocky either about Suicide Squad’s potential. However, they put their heads down, tubthumbed the hell out of this movie, and saved it from being collateral damage in the wake of BvS.

The first thing that Warner Bros. did right in regards to jumpstarting the buzz on Suicide Squad was releasing the Comic-Con sizzle reel for the movie a year ago, rather than making it a precious commodity for Comic-Con attendees. Fanboys were stoked by it. That’s why they pirated it and spread it around the web. Warner Bros. listened and dropped their high quality version online promptly.

But when BvS was flogged for being too dark and serious at the end of March, news hit that Suicide Squad was returning for re shoots (some say that cost the studio an extra $22M). Ayer insisted in interviews and on Twitter that Warner Bros. was just granting him creative license to add more elements.

Suicide Squad star Jai Courtney also mentioned that the film already had enough humor in it prior to the reshoots, and that it was just about lensing more action scenes. However, there are others who insist that the reshoots were definitely about supplying more humor, and that those moments wound up in subsequent trailers.  Whatever side of the story is true, the point is by the time CinemaCon rolled around in April, there was a brand new, kick-ass “Ballroom Blitz” trailer that Warner Bros. dazzled exhibitors with. Arguably, that was the turning point in Suicide Squad‘s campaign that changed the industry’s attitude toward the movie post BvS. Warner Bros. kept dropping trailers through Comic-Con; Margot Robbie’s sexy-sassy Harley Quinn gradually grabbed the spotlight and became the pic’s ‘It’ girl, fashioned on T-shirts online and a Loot Crate promotion.

By mid June, ComScore’s PreAct noticed that Suicide Squad was already owning the social media conversation after dropping character posters and debuting the Twenty One Pilots music video “Heathens” off the new soundtrack with new footage. In the weeks to come, Suicide Squad would lord over other summer movies like Star Trek Beyond and Ghostbusters, as well as other highly anticipated titles like Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Warner Bros’ own Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. Suicide Squad was the most buzzed-about title on social during Comic-Con week (July 18-24) with 231K conversations to Wonder Woman’s 151K and Justice League’s110K. Suicide Squad continued to reign atop PreAct’s chart through July 21 with 172K conversations for the week and a running total of two million-plus.

With a social reach close to 600M across Facebook, Instagram Twitter, and YouTube views, Suicide Squad’s social reach is considered exceptional by RelishMix. The film’s Facebook page in recent days added 80K likes per day, which is off the charts by the social media monitor’s measure. Smith is tubthumping to his 75M Facebook fans, Cara Delevinge pumped up the DC adaptation to her 43M, while Jared Leto has reached out to his 13M. Despite the bad reviews, certain flags on social indicated how big Suicide Squad was bound to be: Its 26 videos on the film’s playlist have chalked up 163M views. The“Heathens” music video has clocked close to 75M views on YouTube.

Overall, the conversation online has been extremely positive per RelishMix, with fans who’ve already seen the film leading the positive word of mouth charge. Some are still talking about the footage that dropped at Comic-Con last summer, while others are chatting up the film’s string of bad guys.

In regards to the critical and audience reception for Suicide Squad, it’s still up in the air how much mileage this DC feature property has. In relation to its $166M opening,BvS had a two multiple when it finaled domestic with $330.36M (just $2.8M short of overtaking Guardians of the Galaxy stateside). One non-Warner Bros. distribution suit waves off the negative reviews for Suicide Squad, predicting “In its first week, it’s going to make $230M to $250M!” This is further bolstered by the fact that CinemaScore crowds under 35 gave Suicide Squad an A-, while 76% females gave it an A-.  The pic also earned an A with the under 18 demo (28%). Others think that a 60% second weekend decline is imminent. By and large, BvS didn’t have those high marks. The other advantage that Suicide Squad has over BvS, is that there’s more kids out of school in the coming weekends. BvS’ business was largely frontloaded because of Easter weekend. Still, many reviews exclaim that there’s a good movie in Suicide Squad; it just missed the mark. Keep in mind it’s not just major outlets likeThe Wall Street Journal, New York Times and The Los Angeles Times flinging popcorn at Suicide Squad, but hipster outlets like Collider and Slate too). The mind wonders, if reviews were through the roof, how much higher would the box office be? Would Suicide Squad’s legs be any longer?

EuropaCorp’s Nine Lives, the weekend’s second wide entry is road kill in sixth with $8M. Why was this $30M tired trope even made? Didn’t anyone over there get the memo about the two Babemovies, Fox’s Doctor Dolittle films andLook Who’s Talking Now!? Apparently, late EuropaCorp exec and Nine Livesproducer Christophe Lambert wanted to make a sophisticated adult comedy about a despicable man, who hates cats, having his soul segued into a feline. Lambert, who was largely in charge of this project, was eventually persuaded by those around him that Nine Liveswould work better as a family film, and that the animals should talk (originally, audiences were suppose to pick up on the cat’s complex movements). In sum, he was enthralled by talking animals’ comedy hijinks. This was not a Luc Besson-shepherded project. At Europa, Lambert had his stack of projects, while Besson worked separately on his. Europa has an estimated $10M exposure on this movie after Montreal/Canada tax credits and foreign sales. Despite its distance from other family features on the summer schedule, moviegoers know they’ve seen better, i.e. Illumination/Uni’s The Secret Life of Pets which will reach close to $320M by Sunday, and Finding Dory which will near $474M by the end of the weekend.

The top 10 films from industry estimates for the weekend Aug. 5-7 (update will occur Saturday AM):

1). Suicide Squad (WB), 4,255 theaters / $63.5M-$65m Fri. (includes $20.5M previews) / 3-day cume: $140M+ / Wk 1

2). Jason Bourne (UNI), 4,039 theaters (+13)/ $6.1M Fri. (-73%) / 3-day cume: $21.1M (-64%)/Total cume: $101.8M/Wk 2

3). Bad Moms (STX), 3,215 theaters (0) / $4.1M Fri. (-57%) / 3-day cume: $12.6M(-47%)/Total cume: $49.4M/ Wk 2

4). The Secret Life of Pets (ILL/UNI), 3,417 theaters (-260) / $3.5M Fri.(-38%) / 3-day cume: $11.6M (-39%) / Total cume: $319.6M/ Wk 5

5). Star Trek Beyond (PAR), 3,263 theaters (-665) / $2.8M Fri. (-58%) / 3-day cume: $10.2M (-59%) / Total cume: $127.9M/ Wk 3

6). Nine Lives (EUR), 2,264 theaters / $2.9M Fri. / 3-day cume: $8M / Wk 1

7). Nerve (LGF), 2,538 theaters (0) / $1.6M Fri (-50%) / 3-day cume: $5.2M (-45%)/ Total cume: $27.2M / Wk 2

8). Ghostbusters (SONY), 2,545 theaters (-507) / $1.4M Fri. (-52%) / 3-day cume: $4.9M (-52%)/ Total cume: $116.8M / Wk 4

9). Lights Out (WB/NL), 2,581 theaters (-254) / $1.56M Fri. (-56%) / 3-day cume: $4.7M (-56%) / Total cume: $52.4M / Wk 3

10.) Ice Age: Collision Course (FOX), 2,738 theaters (-1,259) / $1.4M Fri. (-58%)/ 3-day cume: $4.5M (-59%) / Total cume: $53.8M / Wk 3

2ND UPDATE, Friday, 12:18PM: We already know that Warner Bros.’ Suicide Squad is going to rank as the highest August opening ever at the domestic box office, but with a current 3-day projection of $140M-$145M, it’s bound to be the third best so far this year behind Captain America: Civil War ($179.1M) and Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice ($166M), and the second best this summer, behind Civil War. Today, Suicide Squad is looking to ring up $65M, including last night’s $20.5M previews.

Those in distribution typically say that rival studio executives like to throw rotten apples at your film. But the truth is, everyone likes to see success. Wowed one non-Warner Bros. executive this morning about Suicide Squad, “For all the hype around Pokemon Go, Netflix’s Stranger Things and The Olympics, it’s a good reminder that if you have the right film and your marketing makes it look like a great time, people will still turn out to the theater in droves.”

Currently, per ComScore’s PostTrak, Suicide Squad has a 73% total positive score, which is the same that BvS slotted. As we mentioned earlier, the David Ayer movie is bringing in more females than BvS, 42% to 31%. Also per PostTrak, the combination of African American and Hispanic moviegoers made up a huge 41% of the audience with both audiences giving the film a whopping 81% positive score. The entire Suicide Squad cast was a major reason (at 34%) that people went to see the film, and as proof that Will Smith is still a massive summertime draw, 23% went because of him and 21% were compelled by the appearance of Margot Robbie as Harley Quinn. Without question, even though Suicide Squad is an ensemble movie, it will also rank as Smith’s best domestic weekend opening of his career, outflanking 2007’s I Am Legend ($77M). Robbie’s previous weekend high at the B.O. was The Legend of Tarzan at $38.5M. Thirty-two percent also told PostTrak that they came out for Suicide Squad because it’s part of a franchise they love. And if you’re wondering about how those awful reviews factored into moviegoers’ decision to watch Suicide Squad, well, they’re having very little impact: only 4% said they were influenced by reviews to watch this latest DC feature adaptation.

Suicide Squad is taking most of this weekend’s males hostage, so much so that Universal’s Jason Bourne is currently down 86% in matinees, which is translating to a -65% second weekend of $20.7M. That will get it over the $100M mark by Sunday.

Meanwhile, STX’s Bad Moms will best a -50% hold with a $13M-$14M second weekend. That’s no Bridemaids (their second weekend was -20%), but “in today’s market for that type of film, that’s a good hold,” says one rival distribution chief.

The weekend’s other new release, EuropaCorp’s Nine Lives doesn’t have family audience’s purring with an estimated $6M take.

1ST UPDATE, Friday 7:25AM: Warner Bros’ DC villain feature Suicide Squad, the film which many have eyed as the third title which will save us from a sluggish summer, is indeed doing that after hauling in a $20.5M Thursday night from screenings starting at 6PM. Suicide Squad’s first night easily beats the $11.2M made by Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy on its first Thursday night, and becomes the highest preview ever for the month of August.

Among DC superhero preview nights, Suicide Squad ranks third behind 2012’s The Dark Night Rises which made $30.6M off of midnight showtimes, and last March’s Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice which grossed $27.7M. Among all superhero titles, Suicide Squad’s Thursday ranks fifth behind Dark Knight Rises, BvS, Avengers: Age of Ultron ($27.6M), and Captain America: Civil War ($25M). In Imax hubs, Suicide Squad‘s $2.4M last night also out-pegs the $1.9M preview cash made by Guardians of the Galaxy. 

For a while we’ve known that Suicide Squad will unseat Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy as the highest August opening with a three-day that’s in the vicinity of $140M. Guardians debuted to $94.3M and legged out to $333.1M off of an A CinemaScore and a Rotten Tomatoes review score which outstripped Suicide Squad, 91% fresh to 27%.

That’s the big question this weekend for Suicide Squad: whether audience sentiment will best critical noise. In the case of Batman v. Superman, critics didn’t damage its opening which ranks as Warner Bros. second best at $166M after July 2011’s Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 which cleared $169.1M. However, critics, lackluster word of mouth (B CinemaScore) and a post-Easter frame forced BvS to tumble 69% in its second weekend. Per reported estimated production costs,Suicide Squad at $175M is $75M cheaper than BvS.  Already we’re hearing from tracking sources that early matinee figures are looking like BvS did during its opening Friday, with a strong performance last night from medium to large markets. That movie’s Holy Thursday cash repped 34% of its $81.56M opening day (Good Friday). Generally, of late with these big superhero openings, Thursday night reps north of a third of Friday’s business with 33% of Avengers: Age of Ultron‘s $84.4M being made on Thursday with the same share minted for Civil War‘s $75.5M.

Current demos as of last night for Suicide Squad, which can change throughout the weekend, show more females than BvS, 42% to 31%. And a tad younger, 53% over 25 to 57% over 25.

In its first day at the overseas box office, the David Ayer-directed movie minted $8.1M on Wednesday, largely from South Korea and France. Pic goes wide in 57 territories repping 70% of the offshore footprint.

Suicide Squad hit the tracking boards four weeks ago with an opening projection north of $120M. Pre-sales have been huge with Fandango and Movietickets.com both reporting Suicide Squad as their biggest August pre-seller in their companies history. Movietickets observed that Suicide Squad was beating Guardians of the Galaxy pre-sales by 40%. Currently, Suicide Squad reps 90% of Fandango’s advance weekend sales.

Also opening this weekend is EuropaCorp’s kid pic Nine Lives, a talking feline film, which could make in the mid to high single digits from 2,200 runs.

Yesterday, among films in regular release, Universal’s Jason Bource made an estimated $3.9M raising its week’s cume to $80.7M, which is second behind the first seven days of Bourne Ultimatum which made $98.7M.

STX Entertainment’s Bad Moms ended its week with an estimated $36.8M, which is a hair under where Bridesmaids finaled its seven-day run of $38.5M.  The Jon Lucas-Scott Moore movie made $3M at 3,215 locations yesterday.